Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 20W [UNNAMED]

for Sunday, 30 September 2012 [6:14 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday October 01, 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on 20W (UNNAMED).

20W MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (UNNAMED) UPDATE NUMBER 01
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Mon 01 October 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Depression 20W (UNNAMED), newly-formed cyclone moving across the Northernmost Mariana Islands...Rainbands affecting a wide area from Agrihan down to Guam.

Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichi Jima should closely monitor the progress of 20W (Unnamed).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon October 01, 2012
Location of Center: 17.3º N Lat 145.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 33 km (S) closer to Alamagan, CNMI
Distance 2: 89 km (S) closer to Pagan, CNMI
Distance 3: 157 km (SSE) closer to Agrihan, CNMI
Distance 4: 234 km (N) closer to Saipan, CNMI
Distance 5: 447 km (NNE) away from Guam, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Iwo To and Chichi Jima
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

20W (Unnamed) is expected to move NW-ward during the next 12 to 48 hours w/ a northward to NNE-ward turn thereafter. On the forecast track, the core of 20W is expected to pass near to the west of Iwo To on Wednesday...and very close Bonin and Chichi Jima Islands on Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remains at 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening will be expected during the next 24 to 48 hours...and 20W could become a Tropical Storm later this afternoon or tonight.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Accelerating northwestward toward Iwo To and Chichi Jima Area...strengthens into a strong Tropical Storm...about 518 km SSE of Iwo To [11AM OCT 02: 20.2N 142.1E @ 95kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Turns north as it becomes a Typhoon...approaching Iwo To...about 189 km SW of Iwo To [11AM OCT 03: 23.5N 140.1E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Recurves northeastward while passing close to Chichi Jima...intensified slightly...about 82 km ENE of Chichi Jima [11AM OCT 04: 27.4N 141.3E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Marianas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 330 mm (high) along areas near the center of 20W (Unnamed) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 20W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2012.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 20W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 20W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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