Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD MALIKSI [20W]

for Monday, 01 October 2012 [6:53 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday October 01, 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on MALIKSI (20W).

MALIKSI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MALIKSI UPDATE NUMBER 02
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Mon 01 October 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Depression MALIKSI (20W) now passing over the Northernmost Mariana Islands...could become a Tropical Storm tonight.

Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichi Jima should closely monitor the progress of Maliksi (20W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon October 01, 2012
Location of Center: 18.2º N Lat 145.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 54 km (W) away from Pagan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 64 km (SSW) away from Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 85 km (NW) away from Alamagan Is., CNMI
Distance 4: 336 km (NNW) away from Saipan, CNMI
Distance 5: 536 km (N) away from Guam, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Iwo To and Chichi Jima
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MALIKSI (20W) is expected to continue moving NW-ward during the next 12 to 48 hours w/ a northward to NNE-ward turn thereafter. On the forecast track, the core of MALIKSI is expected to pass to the west of Iwo To on Wednesday afternoon...and near Bonin and Chichi Jima Islands on Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remains at 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening will be expected during the next 24 to 48 hours...and 20W could become a Tropical Storm later tonight or early Tuesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Moving northwestward toward Iwo To and Chichi Jima Area...strengthens into a strong Tropical Storm...about 413 km South of Iwo To [5PM OCT 02: 21.1N 141.7E @ 85kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Turns north as it becomes a Typhoon...passing just west of Iwo To...about 152 km West of Iwo To [5PM OCT 03: 24.7N 139.8E @ 120kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Recurves northeastward while passing northwest of Chichi Jima...intensified slightly...about 195 km NW of Chichi Jima [5PM OCT 04: 28.4N 140.8E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Marianas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 330 mm (high) along areas near the center of 20W (Unnamed) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD MALIKSI (20W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 20W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD MALIKSI (20W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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