Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA)

for Wednesday, 10 October 2012 [7:39 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 10 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thursday 11 Oct 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) getting stronger as it slightly accelerates across the North Philippine Sea...remains far away from land.

Meanwhile, on-and-off rains with isolated squalls (locally known as Subasko) and thunderstorms associated with the northerly surface windflow will continue to affect the Bicol Region and Southern Quezon including the Polillo Island Group and Northern Samar tonight. This windflow is enhanced by the large Typhoon Prapiroon.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 pm today, the cloud-filled eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 822 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 896 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 13 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to continue moving west-northwest to northwest during the next 24 hours with a gradual turn to the north to north-northeast through 48 hours. By 72 hours, Prapiroon (Nina) is forecast to make a recurvature with a steady northeast movement across the North Philippine Sea/Western Pacific Ocean. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea through Saturday.

This typhoon will continue to intensify during the next 2 days as it moves over warm sea surface temperatures...and Prapiroon (Nina) could become a major typhoon (category 3) later tonight or Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Moving northwest with a gradual turn to the north...becomes a major typhoon (category 3)...about 748 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [6PM OCT 11: 19.6N 129.0E @ 205kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a powerful, category 4 typhoon...recurves to the northeast while still over the North Philippine Sea...about 771 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [6PM OCT 12: 20.8N 129.4E @ 215kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Starts to weaken as it maintains its northeastward track across the open sea...about 862 east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [6PM OCT 13: 21.8N 130.2E @ 205kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North & Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed October 10, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 18.7º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 813 km (ENE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 822 km (E) closer to Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 896 km (SSE) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 861 km (ESE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 885 km (ENE) closer to Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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