Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SON-TINH (OFEL) Update #011

for Saturday, 27 October 2012 [7:48 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SON-TINH (OFEL) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 27 Oct 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Saturday 27 Oct 2012

Son-Tinh (Ofel) becomes a Typhoon as it maintains its west-northwest track...increases its threat to Southern Hainan and Northern Vietnam. Rainbands spreading across Hainan Island and Central Vietnam.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Guangdong Province (China). Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 40 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along Central and Northern Vietnam including Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5 am today, the center of Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located over the South China Sea...about 300 km southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island or 364 km east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 24 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers from the center. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be heavy (210 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 12 hours with a gradual decrease in its forward speed. It will therefore maintain its track through 24 hours, before gradually turning northwest to northward between 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving across the South China Sea tonight until early Sunday. The storm should then be passing south of Hainan Island by late Saturday afternoon and approach the coast of Northern Vietnam Sunday morning. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is forecast to make landfall along the shores of Northern Vietnam on Sunday afternoon and move over land into the northernmost part of Vietnam Monday afternoon.

This storm is expected to continue gaining strength during the next 24 hours while over the South China Sea...and Son-Tinh (Ofel) could become a Category 2 Typhoon tonight or early Sunday. Son-Tinh (Ofel) will start to dissipate as soon as it enters the land mass of Northern Vietnam on Monday...and will be just a Tropical Depression on Tuesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Approaching the coast of Northern Vietnam after passing south of Hainan Island...intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon...about 157 km west-southwest of Dongfang, Hainan Island [5AM OCT 28: 18.4N 107.4E @ 160kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Makes landfall over Northern Vietnam...downgraded into a Tropical Storm...about 105 km south-southwest of Hanoi, Vietnam [5AM OCT 29: 20.1N 105.6E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Dissipating over land...downgraded into a Tropical Depression...in the vicinity of Northern Vietnam...about 15 km north of Hanoi [5AM OCT 30: 21.1N 105.8E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Southern Hainan and the Coastal Areas of North-Central Vietnam including the cities of Hue and Da Nang. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the rest of Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Central Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 210 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Hainan and Northern Vietnam. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Philippines, Rest of Hainan Island, Southwestern China and Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat October 27, 2012
Class/Name: TY Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Center: 16.4� N Lat 111.6� E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km (SE) closer to Sanya, Hainan
Distance 2: 332 km (SSE) closer to Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 3: 364 km (ENE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 4: 427 km (E) closer to Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 429 km (SE) closer to Dong Fang, Hainan
Distance 6: 788 km (SE) closer to Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 7: 1,037 km (WNW) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph
Towards: Southern Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [210 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 780 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/ofel11.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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