Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS PRAPIROON (NINA)

for Tuesday, 16 October 2012 [7:36 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 026
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 16 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 17 Oct 2012

Prapiroon (Nina) weakens into a Tropical Storm and has moved westward during the past 12 hours...likely to turn northward on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria (23W) has completed its recurvature while very close to Bonin and Chichi Jima Islands. Its center was located about 74 km northwest of Chichi Jima...with winds of 100 km/hr...moving north-northeast at 28 kph. Forecast to move across the sea to the east-southeast of Japan on Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 787 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 526 km south-southeast of Okinawa City, Japan...currently moving west slowly with a forward speed of 9 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers from the center. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to turn slowly northwest to north during the next 24 hours...and recurve sharply northeastward throughout the forecast period (72 hours). On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea, but will move closer to Okinawa on Wednesday and Thursday...after it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It may then start to accelerate at a faster speed towards the sea south of Japan on Friday.

This storm is likely to continue losing strength within the next 48 hours.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Turns north while moving closer to Okinawa and the Ryukyus...about 340 km south-southeast of Okinawa City [6PM OCT 17: 23.5N 128.5E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: At its closest approach to Okinawa...recurves to the northeast...about 329 km east of Okinawa, Japan [6PM OCT 18: 26.3N 131.1E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Rapidly accelerates toward the northeast away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...heading for the sea south of Japan as it loses strength...about 742 south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan [6PM OCT 19: 29.4N 137.1E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue October 16, 2012
Class/Name: TS Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 22.0º N Lat 129.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 498 km (SSE) closer to Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 519 km (SSE) closer to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 526 km (SSE) closer to Okinawa City
Distance 4: 700 km (S) closer to Amami Is., Ryukyus
Distance 5: 787 km (ENE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: West @ 07 kph
Towards: Sea East of Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/nina26.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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