Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SON-TINH (OFEL) Update #014

for Sunday, 28 October 2012 [8:24 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SON-TINH (OFEL) UPDATE NUMBER 014
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 28 Oct 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sunday 28 Oct 2012

Son-Tinh (Ofel) now a powerful typhoon with winds of almost 200 km/hr...moving closer to Northern Vietnam as it tracks across the Gulf of Tonkin. Landfall likely between Thanh Hoa and Nam Dinh tonight.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Guangdong Province (China). Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 40 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam including Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5 am today, the eye of Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located over the southern part of the Gulf of Tonkin...about 168 km southwest of Dongfang, Hainan or 185 km east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 195 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to move northwest to northward during the next 12 to 24 hours with a gradual decrease in its forward speed...and may recurve northeastward to eastward between 24 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to reach the coast of Northern Vietnam by late Sunday afternoon...and make landfall near the city of Thanh Hoa by Sunday evening. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is likely to pass very close to Nam Dinh on Monday morning, Hanoi on Monday afternoon and over the Vietnamese-Chinese Border on Wednesday morning.

This typhoon may lose strength prior to landfall as its circulation interacts with the land terrain of Northern Vietnam and Hainan Island. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is likely to be downgraded into a Tropical Storm once it moves over land across Northern Vietnam on Monday evening through Tuesday...and dissipate on Wednesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Over Northern Vietnam very near Nam Dinh City, weakening into a Category 1 Typhoon...about 56 km south of Hanoi, Vietnam [5AM OCT 29: 20.5N 105.8E @ 150kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it drifts very slowly northeastward...about 76 km northeast of Hanoi, Vietnam [5AM OCT 30: 21.4N 106.4E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipated over land...just an area of low pressure near the Vietnamese-Chinese Border...about 146 km east-northeast of Hanoi [5AM OCT 31: 21.5N 107.1E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Gulf of Tonkin)...not yet affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Gulf of Tonkin)...not yet affecting any land areas...but will reach the shores east of Thanh Hoa City later this afternoon. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Western and Southwestern Hainan and the Coastal Areas of Northern Vietnam including Vinh and Cua Lo. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the rest of Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Central and Northern Vietnam, and Western Guangdong. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western Hainan, Northern and Central Vietnam. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of the rest of Hainan Island, Southwestern China and Central Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun October 28, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Eye: 18.3� N Lat 107.4� E Lon
Distance 1: 163 km (SW) away from Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 2: 185 km (ESE) closer to Vinh, Vietnam
Distance 3: 188 km (ESE) closer to Cua Lo, Vietnam
Distance 4: 201 km (NNW) away from Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 211 km (W) away from Sanya, Hainan
Distance 6: 237 km (SE) closer to Thanh Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 7: 238 km (SE) closer to Thai Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 8: 259 km (NNW) away from Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 9: 265 km (SSE) closer to Nam Dinh, Vietnam
Distance 10: 344 km (SSE) closer to Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 780 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/ofel14.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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