Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Sunday, 30 September 2012 [6:14 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 29, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 32
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sun 30 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

JELAWAT (LAWIN) downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it moves along the coast of Chubu Region...preapres to make landfall over Southern Honshu particularly Chubu and Kanto Region. Tropical Storm Conditions over Southern and Eastern Honshu will be expected through the night.

Residents and visitors along Southern & Eastern Japan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun September 30, 2012
Location of Center: 34.3º N Lat 137.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km (S) closer to Nagoya, Japan
Distance 2: 158 km (ENE) away from Tanabe, Japan
Distance 3: 165 km (E) away from Wakayama, Japan
Distance 4: 190 km (SSW) closer to Osaka, Japan
Distance 5: 291 km (WSW) closer to Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Towards: Chubu and Kanto Region (Honshu)
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Sunday Evening [10PM-12MN JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue accelerating rapidly NE-ward during the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT is expected to make landfall over Chubu Region in the next few hours and will move over land, crossing the Kanto Region tonight. It will then pass just north of Metropolitan Tokyo between 10 PM -12 MN Japanese Time...and could be over Kuril Islands on Monday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. This storm will continue to decay during the next 24 hours as it moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures and moves across the Japanese landmass.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles) from the center. JELAWAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 945 kilometers (510 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Accelerating rapidly northeastward...passing to the south of the Kuril Island Chain...weakens further as it becomes Extratropical...about 168 km South of Kuril Islands [5PM OCT 01: 44.4N 150.4E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DISSIPATING EYE - over water (Sea south of Japan)...just along the southern shores of Chubu Region. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DECAYING EYEWALL - affecting Chubu and Kanto Region of Japan. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Southern Honshu. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Kyushu, Shikoku, portions of Central Honshu and Sea of Japan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Shikoku and Southern Honshu.. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern and Eastern Luzon, and Eastern Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 Hours Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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