Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Tuesday, 25 September 2012 [8:40 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
SUPER TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 16
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 25 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Super Typhoon JELAWAT (LAWIN) still moving on a NNW direction across the warm Philippine Sea...increases its threat to Extreme Northern Luzon and Eastern Taiwan including Yaeyama and Ishigaki Jima.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm EWINIAR (19W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), east-northeast of STY JELAWAT (LAWIN) has accelerated slightly northward. This storm is not expected to enter PAR. Its center was located about 304 km WSW of Iwo To or 1,760 km ENE of Batanes (23.3N 138.8E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 75 kph near the center, moving North to NNE @ 19 kph towards Chichi Jima area. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan including Yaeyama and Ishigaki Islands should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue September 25, 2012
Location of Eye: 16.7º N Lat 127.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 522 km (ESE) closer to Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 557 km (ENE) away from Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 588 km (ESE) closer to Ilagan City
Distance 4: 603 km (ESE) closer to Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 576 km (SE) closer to Sta. Ana, Cagayan
Distance 6: 678 km (SE) closer to Calayan Island
Distance 7: 700 km (SE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 704 km (ENE)away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph (140 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-Ishigaki Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 47 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [>5.5 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to turn NW-ward with little change in its forward speed during the next 24 to 48 hours...recurving NE-ward through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will just remain over the warm waters of the North Philippine Sea, passing near to the east of the Batanes Group on Thursday afternoon. This system will be passing very near Ishigaki Jima on Friday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remains at 260 km/hr (150 knots) with higher gusts. Some fluctuation in its strength is expected during the next 24 hours before it starts to weakens through 72 hours.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Turns NW across the North Philippine Sea towards Batanes area...weakens to Category 4...about 369 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6PM SEP 26: 18.6N 125.7E @ 240kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: No longer a Super Typhoon as it passes to the east of Batanes...prepares to make a recurvature toward the NE...about 223 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [6PM SEP 27: 20.9N 124.1E @ 215kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Starts to recurve toward the NE...approaches Ishigaki Jima...weakens to Category 3...about 146 km SSW of Ishigaki City [6PM SEP 28: 23.2N 124.0E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

22-KM ROUND EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its southwestern part has started to recede away from the Pacific coastal areas of Samar and Bicol Provinces. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft [>5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Cagayan, Batanes, Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama and Ishigaki Jima beginning Wednesday evening through Friday. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon including Eastern and Northern Bicol and Northern Samar (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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