Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Thursday, 27 September 2012 [9:40 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 210 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
SUPER TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 22
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 27 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Super Typhoon JELAWAT (LAWIN) has regained a little bit of strength...now on its closest point of approach (CPA) to the Batanes Island Group. This intense typhoon is forecast to start recurving northeastward later tonight or Friday.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm EWINIAR (19W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), northeast of STY JELAWAT (LAWIN) has continued moving north across the open sea of the NW Pacific. Its center was located about 511 km SSE of Tokyo, Japan or 512 km North of Chichi Jima (31.6N 142.2E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 100 kph near the center, moving North @ 19 kph towards the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Eastern Taiwan including Yaeyama-Ishigaki-Okinawa Islands should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu September 27, 2012
Location of Eye: 20.9º N Lat 124.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 243 km (ENE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 260 km (E) closer to Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 342 km (NE) away from Calayan Island
Distance 4: 352 km (NNE) away from Sta. Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 400 km (S) closer to Ishigaki Jima
Distance 6: 442 km (SE) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 7: 533 km (SSE) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 8: 717 km (SSW) away from Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (135 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Okinawa Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 1090 km (590 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 45 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to move slowly Northward with little change in its forward speed during the next 12 to 24 hours...and may recurve NE-ward through the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will pass near the southern part of Ishigaki Jima by Friday afternoon...and is likely to pass over Okinawa on Saturday afternoon. By Sunday evening, JELAWAT is likely to be approaching the Southwestern Coast of Honshu in Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased slightly to 250 km/hr (135 knots) with higher gusts. This intense typhoon will start to weaken during the next 3 days as it moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,090 kilometers (590 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Just below Super Typhoon strength...recurving as it passes close to Ishigaki Jima...about 114 km SE of Ishigaki City [6PM SEP 28: 23.7N 124.9E @ 230kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...moving away from Okinawa...weakens to Category 3...about 123 km ENE of Okinawa City [6PM SEP 29: 27.0N 128.9E @ 185kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon as it rapidly accelerates toward the NE...approaching the southern coast of Honshu...about 202 km S of Kochi, Japan [6PM SEP 30: 31.7N 133.9E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

68-KM ROUND EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Batanes Island Group. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its southwestern part affecting and spreading across Cagayan, Aurora and Isabela. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan, Batanes, Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama, and Ishigaki Jima tonight through Saturday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern and Northern Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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