Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Sunday, 23 September 2012 [3:26 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 09
12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 23 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

JELAWAT (LAWIN) rapidly becomes a Typhoon as it starts turning NNW slowly...likely to spare Samar and Bicol Provinces...Outer rainbands continues to affect the area.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Luzon should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Sun September 23, 2012
Location of Center: 12.2º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 365 km (ENE) closer to Borongan City
Distance 2: 447 km (ESE) closer to Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 512 km (ESE) closer to Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 518 km (ESE) closer to Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 552 km (ESE) closer to Legazpi City
Distance 6: 560 km (SE) closer to Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 7: 616 km (ESE) closer to Naga City
Distance 8: 874 km (SE) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kt)
Towards: Central Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue moving very slowly NNW during the next 12 hours...and is likely to make a gradual turn toward the North during the next 24 to 48 hours. After 48 hours, JELAWAT could turn back to its NNW direction. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will continue to remain over the warm open waters of the Philippine Sea, well to the east of Luzon and not affecting any land areas.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. A continued increase in strength could be expected during the next 2 to 3 days...and JELAWAT is likely to reach Category 2 or 3 intensity later tonight or Monday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers (95 nautical miles). JELAWAT is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY NOON: Starts moving slowly north...becomes a Category 3 Typhoon...about 465 km E of Virac, Catanduanes [12PM SEP 24: 13.6N 128.5E @ 185kph].
TUESDAY NOON: Maintains its northerly track across the Philippine Sea...still intensifying...about 650 km E of Casiguran, Aurora [12PM SEP 25: 16.1N 128.2E @ 205kph].
WEDNESDAY NOON: Reaches Category 4 strength as it turns back to the NNW across the North Philippine Sea...about 538 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [12PM SEP 26: 18.5N 127.3E @ 215kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAGGED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its westernmost part affecting & spreading across Eastern Visayas and portions of Bicol Region. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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