Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Saturday, 29 September 2012 [6:25 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 29, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 29
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sun 30 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon JELAWAT (LAWIN) rapidly decaying as it races northeastward toward Southern Honshu...just a Category 1 system. This weakening cyclone is expected to make landfall and traverse Southern Honshu tonight.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm EWINIAR (19W) has lost tropical characteristics, becomes a mid-latitude cyclone (extratropical) as it moves across the cooler NW Pacific Ocean. Its center was located about 971 km ENE of Sendai, Japan (39.7N 152.0E)...with 10-min. sustained winds of 75 kph near the center, moving NE @ 37 kph. Check out the final details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun September 30, 2012
Location of Eye: 30.7º N Lat 133.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km (ESE) away from Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 2: 311 km (S) closer to Kochi, Japan
Distance 3: 383 km (SW) closer to Tanabe, Japan
Distance 4: 470 km (NE) away from Amami Island
Distance 5: 719 km (NE) away from Okinawa, Japan
Distance 6: 807 km (SW) closer to Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (120 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 52 kph (28 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Sunday Evening [9-11PM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 205 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue accelerating rapidly NE-ward during the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT is expected to make landfall over Southern Honshu tonight, passing over or very near Metropolitan Tokyo between 8-9 PM Japanese Time...and could be passing just to the south of Kuril Islands on Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly decreased to 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts. This typhoon will continue to decay during the next 24 hours as it moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures and moves across the Japanese landmass.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 945 kilometers (510 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Accelerating rapidly northeastward...moving away from Eastern Honshu...weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it becomes Extratropical...about 408 km NE of Sendai, Japan [5AM OCT 01: 40.5N 144.7E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Sea south of Japan). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DECAYING EYEWALL - over water (Sea south of Japan)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach and affect Southern Honshu this afternoon. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Shikoku and Souther Honshu. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Kyushu, Ryukyus, Western Honshu and Sea of Japan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 205 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Shikoku and Southern Honshu.. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern and Eastern Luzon, and Eastern Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 Hours Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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