Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Saturday, 29 September 2012 [8:15 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 29, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 26
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 29 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Eyewall of Typhoon JELAWAT (LAWIN) approaching Okinawa...Typhoon Conditions now being felt across the area. This system is expected to pass over the island on or before noon today.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm EWINIAR (19W) continues to track northeastward across the Northwest Pacific Ocean, SE of Japan. Its center was located about 596 km ESE of Tokyo, Japan (34.0N 145.9E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 85 kph near the center, moving NE @ 24 kph towards the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Yaeyama-Ishigaki-Okinawa Islands and Japan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat September 29, 2012
Location of Eye: 25.9º N Lat 126.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 87 km (WSW) closer to Naha Intl Airport
Distance 2: 106 km (WSW) closer to Kadena Air Base
Distance 3: 112 km (SW) closer to Okinawa City
Distance 4: 304 km (ENE) away from Ishigaki Jima
Distance 5: 364 km (SW) closer to Amami Island
Distance 6: 782 km (NE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Saturday Noontime [approx 11AM-1PM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 310 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 39 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue accelerating rapidly NE-ward during the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will pass over or very close to Okinawa on or before noon today...and could make landfall over Southern Honshu on Sunday evening, and cross the area. By Monday morning, JELAWAT is forecast to be approaching Kamchatka Peninsila.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. This typhoon will continue to decay during the next 3 days as it moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 945 kilometers (510 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Accelerating rapidly northeastward...approaching the Southern Coast of Honshu...weakens to Category 1...about 342 km SSW of Kochi, Japan [6AM SEP 30: 30.6N 132.8E @ 150kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Moving away from Japan, after crossing the main island of Honshu...downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 183 km E of Sendai, Japan [6AM OCT 01: 38.3N 143.0E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a depression as it becomes Extratropical...starts to move away from the Kuril Island Group...about 282 km S of Kamchatka Peninsula [6AM OCT 02: 48.6N 156.3E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

40-KM CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea...may reach the Okinawa this morning. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting Okinawa. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Yaeyama and Ishigaki Jima. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 310 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Ishigaki Jima, Okinawa and the Ryukyu today.. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern and Eastern Luzon, and Eastern Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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