Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Saturday, 29 September 2012 [6:25 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 29, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 28
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sat 29 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

The eye of Typhoon JELAWAT (LAWIN) now passing just to the south of Amami Island...rapidly weakens to Category 2.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm EWINIAR (19W) remains over the open waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean, ESE of Japan. Its center was located about 774 km ENE of Tokyo, Japan (37.0N 148.2E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 85 kph near the center, moving NNE @ 38 kph. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat September 29, 2012
Location of Eye: 27.4º N Lat 129.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km (S) closer to Amami Island
Distance 2: 187 km (NE) away from Okinawa City
Distance 3: 194 km (NE) away from Kadena Air Base
Distance 4: 215 km (NE) away from Naha Intl Airport
Distance 5: 603 km (NE) away from Ishigaki Jima
Distance 6: 479 km (SSW) closer to Kagoshima, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Sunday Evening [9-11PM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 305 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue accelerating rapidly NE-ward during the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT is expected to make landfall over Southern Honshu on Sunday evening, passing over or very near Metropolitan Tokyo...and could be passing just to the south of Kuril Islands on Monday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. This typhoon will continue to decay during the next 3 days as it moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 945 kilometers (510 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Accelerating rapidly northeastward...approaching the Southern Coast of Honshu...weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 240 km SW of Tokyo, Japan [5PM SEP 30: 34.2N 137.8E @ 100kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Moving farther away from Japan, after crossing Southern Honshu...becomes Extratropical...about 313 km S of Kuril Islands [5PM OCT 01: 42.9N 150.1E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

22-KM CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea...just along the southern shores of Amami Island. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting Amami Island and Northern Ryukyus. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa and Southern Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Ishigaki Jima, Kyushu, Western Honshu and Shikoku. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 305 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and the Ryukyu tonight.. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern and Eastern Luzon, and Eastern Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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