Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Wednesday, 26 September 2012 [9:15 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 210 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
SUPER TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 19
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 26 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Super Typhoon JELAWAT (LAWIN) likely to spare Extreme Northern Luzon from its ferocious winds...maintains its strength and movement. Outer rainbands moving closer to Northern Cagayan.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm EWINIAR (19W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), northeast of STY JELAWAT (LAWIN) has resumed its fast movement towards the northeast...now passing in the vicinity of Chichi Jima. Its center was located about 23 km SE of Chichi Jima or 2,173 km ENE of Batanes (26.9N 142.2E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 95 kph near the center, moving NE @ 24 kph towards the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan including Yaeyama-Ishigaki-Okinawa Islands should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed September 26, 2012
Location of Eye: 18.2º N Lat 126.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 402 km (ESE) closer to Sta. Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 404 km (ENE) away from Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 459 km (ENE) away from Ilagan City
Distance 4: 460 km (ENE) away from Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 489 km (ESE) closer to Calayan Island
Distance 6: 491 km (SE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 725 km (SSE) closer to Ishigaki Jima
Distance 8: 790 km (SSE) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (135 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Okinawa Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 1000 km (540 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 47 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue moving slowly NW to NNW-ward with little change in its forward speed during the next 24 hours...recurving NE-ward through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will just remain over the North Philippine Sea, passing near to the east of the Batanes Group on Thursday afternoon...passing just south of Ishigaki Jima on Friday afternoon. This system will be passing very near Okinawa Islands on Saturday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 250 km/hr (135 knots) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next 3 days as Jelawat moves into lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers (540 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Just below Super Typhoon strength...begins to move north while passing to the east of Batanes Islands...about 220 km ENE of Basco [6PM SEP 27: 20.7N 124.1E @ 230kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Makes a recurvature close to the south of Ishigaki-Okinawa Area...weakens to Category 3...about 150 km SSE of Ishigaki Jima [6PM SEP 28: 23.2N 124.6E @ 195kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...rapidly accelerates northeastward...passing very close to Okinawa Islands...weakens to Category 2...about 80 km SSW of Okinawa, Japan [6PM SEP 29: 25.7N 127.6E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

41-KM RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but may reach the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan on Thursday.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its western part affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Cagayan and Isabela. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes, Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama, and Ishigaki Jima beginning today evening through Saturday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern and Northern Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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