Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Friday, 28 September 2012 [1:33 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 24
12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 28 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

JELAWAT (LAWIN) no longer a Super Typhoon as it accelerates slightly NNE...increases its threat to Okinawa. This howler is forecast to pass close to the SSE of Ishigaki Jima this afternoon.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm EWINIAR (19W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has weakened while over the NW Pacific. Its center was located about 500 km SSE of Tokyo, Japan (31.9N 142.6E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 85 kph near the center, moving NE @ 10 kph towards the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Yaeyama-Ishigaki-Okinawa Islands and Japan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Fri September 28, 2012
Location of Eye: 23.1º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 156 km (S) closer to Ishigaki Jima
Distance 2: 283 km (ESE) away from Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 338 km (SE) away from Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 356 km (NE) away from Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 368 km (NNE) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 524 km (SW) closer to Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 230 kph (125 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 280 kph (150 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Okinawa Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Saturday Noontime [approx 11AM-1PM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 1090 km (590 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 44 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to accelerate NNE to NE-ward during the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will pass near the southern part of Ishigaki Jima this afternoon...and is likely to pass very near Okinawa around noontime on Saturday...and shall be making landfall over Southern Shikoku or Southern Honshu on Sunday evening. By Monday noon, JELAWAT is likely to emerge over the Northwest Pacific Ocean after traversing Honshu while moving fast northeastward.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 230 km/hr (125 knots) with higher gusts. This intense typhoon will continue to weaken during the next 3 days as it moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,090 kilometers (590 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY NOON: Accelerating rapidly northeastward as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...passing very close to Okinawa...about 40 km West of Okinawa City [12PM SEP 29: 26.6N 127.4E @ 215kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Approaching the southern coast of Shikoku and Honshu (Japan)...weakens to Category 2...about 235 km SSW of Kochi, Japan [12PM SEP 30: 31.5N 133.2E @ 160kph].
MONDAY NOON: Becoming Extratropical as it starts to move away from Eastern Honshu across the Northwest Pacific Ocean...about 62 km E of Sendai, Japan [12PM OCT 01: 38.3N 141.6E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

35-KM ROUND EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across East Coast of Taiwan, Yaeyama and Ishigaki Jima...will reach Okinawa later tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa, Rest of Taiwan, Batanes, Calayan, and Babuyan Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes, Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama, and Ishigaki Jima tonight through Saturday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern and Northern Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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