Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Friday, 21 September 2012 [1:16 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 03
12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 21 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm JELAWAT (LAWIN) moving southwestward over the Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours with no change in strength...its forward speed will continue to decrease.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Luzon should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Fri September 21, 2012
Location of Center: 12.9º N Lat 130.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 541 km (ENE) closer to Borongan City
Distance 2: 609 km (ENE) closer to Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 654 km (ESE) closer to Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 672 km (E) closer to Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 704 km (ESE) closer to Legazpi City
Distance 6: 761 km (ESE) closer to Naga City
Distance 7: 1010 km (ESE) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: SW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue moving southwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours...and will make a gradual turn toward the NW within 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will remain over the open waters of the Philippine Sea, well to the east of Bicol Region as it undergoes a snail-pace forward track.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. A continued increase in strength will be expected during the next 2 days...and JELAWAT could become a Typhoon on Sunday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY NOON: Turns Westward while still over the Philippine Sea...approaching Typhoon threshold...about 478 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar [12PM SEP 22: 12.5N 129.0E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Gradually turns to the NW slowly...becomes a Category 1 Typhoon...about 444 km E of Sorsogon City [12PM SEP 23: 13.1N 128.1E @ 130kph].
MONDAY NOON: Continues to strengthen as it accelerates slightly northwesterly across the Central Philippine Sea...about 334 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes [12PM SEP 24: 14.1N 127.3E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...but expected to reach the coastal areas of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region beginning tonight or Saturday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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