Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Monday, 24 September 2012 [9:13 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
SUPER TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 11
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 24 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

JELAWAT (LAWIN) becomes a Super Typhoon as it continues to move slowly northward across the Philippine Sea. This howler already spared Samar and Bicol Provinces from a possible close passage, however its outer rainbands will continue to affect these areas.

Residents and visitors along Bicol Region, Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon September 24, 2012
Location of Eye: 13.4º N Lat 128.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 445 km (ENE) away from Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 476 km (E) away from Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 500 km (ENE) away from Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 521 km (ESE) away from Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 5: 531 km (E) away from Legazpi City
Distance 6: 562 km (E) away from Iriga City
Distance 7: 585 km (E) away from Naga City
Distance 8: 820 km (ESE) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-Yaeyama Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue moving northward slowly during the next 12 hours, with a turn to the NNW through 24 hours...and is likely to track NW-ward during the next 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will just remain over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea, well to the east of Luzon as it moves in the direction of Taiwan-Yaeyama-Ishigaki Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 240 km/hr (130 knots) with higher gusts. This system is expected to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours...and JELAWAT could become a Category 5 Super Typhoon on Tuesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Starts moving slowly NNW across the Philippine Sea...strengthens to Category 5...about 642 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora [6AM SEP 25: 15.9N 128.1E @ 260kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 4, turns more NW-ward towards the the sea east of Taiwan...about 507 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6AM SEP 26: 18.3N 127.0E @ 240kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to move NW-ward...just below Super Typhoon strength as it approaches the Taiwan-Ishigaki Area...about 345 km E of Basco, Batanes [6AM SEP 27: 20.3N 125.3E @ 220kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

SMALL ROUND EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its western part affecting & spreading across Samar and Bicol Provinces. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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