Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Saturday, 22 September 2012 [12:47 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 06
12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 22 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm JELAWAT (LAWIN) intensifying as it remains almost stationary during the past 6 hours...will gradually turn NW to NNW beginning tonight or Sunday.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Luzon should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 MN PhT Sat September 22, 2012
Location of Center: 11.8º N Lat 129.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 480 km (ENE) closer to Borongan City
Distance 2: 527 km (ENE) closer to Tacloban City
Distance 3: 570 km (ESE) closer to Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 4: 639 km (SE) closer to Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 644 km (ESE) closer to Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 678 km (ESE) closer to Legazpi City
Distance 7: 743 km (SE) closer to Naga City
Distance 8: 992 km (SE) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 600 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to move very slowly WNW to NW during the next 12 hours...and will make a gradual turn toward the NNW during the next 24 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will continue to remain over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea, well to the east of Bicol Region and move on a snail-pace, poleward track.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. A continued increase in strength will be expected during the next 2 to 3 days...and JELAWAT could become a Typhoon on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center. JELAWAT is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY NOON: Starts moving slowly NNW...becomes a Category 1 Typhoon...about 456 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar [12PM SEP 23: 12.4N 128.8E @ 130kph].
MONDAY NOON: Continues to track slowly NNW while over the Philippine Sea...becomes a Category 2 Typhoon...about 454 km E of Virac, Catanduanes [12PM SEP 24: 13.6N 128.4E @ 165kph].
TUESDAY NOON: Reaches Category 3 strength while maintaining its movement across the Philippine Sea...about 592 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora [12PM SEP 25: 15.6N 127.6E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" may be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (85-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-84 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its westernmost part affecting & spreading across Eastern Visayas and portions of Bicol Region. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 600 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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