Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Wednesday, 26 September 2012 [3:00 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
SUPER TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 18
12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 26 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Super Typhoon JELAWAT (LAWIN) has weakened to a Category 4 howler...still moving northwestward...remains a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm EWINIAR (19W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), northeast of STY JELAWAT (LAWIN) has slowed down as it moves east-northeastward. Its center was located about 122 km SW of Chichi Jima or 2,081 km ENE of Batanes (26.0N 141.5E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 95 kph near the center, moving ENE @ 15 kph towards Chichi Jima area. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and Taiwan including Yaeyama and Ishigaki Islands should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Wed September 26, 2012
Location of Eye: 17.8º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 423 km (ENE) closer to Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 440 km (ESE) closer to Sta. Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 482 km (ENE) closer to Ilagan City
Distance 4: 488 km (ENE) closer to Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 533 km (ESE) closer to Calayan Island
Distance 6: 542 km (SE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 665 km (NE) away from Metro Manila
Distance 8: 776 km (SSE) closer to Ishigaki Jima
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (135 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Okinawa Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 47 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue moving slowly NW to NNW-ward with little change in its forward speed during the next 24 to 48 hours...recurving NE-ward through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will just remain over the North Philippine Sea, passing near to the east of the Batanes Group on Thursday evening. This system will be passing near Ishigaki Jima by Saturday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 250 km/hr (135 knots) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next 3 days.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 945 kilometers (510 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY NOON: Continues to move NW across the North Philippine Sea as it approaches Batanes area...no longer a Super Typhoon as it weakens slightly...about 266 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [12PM SEP 27: 19.7N 124.4E @ 230kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Makes a recurvature towards Ishigaki-Okinawa Area...weakens to Category 3...about 200 km S of Ishigaki Jima [12PM SEP 28: 22.7N 124.0E @ 195kph].
SATURDAY NOON: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...accelerates northeastward towards Okinawa...weakens to Category 2...about 240 km SW of Okinawa, Japan [12PM SEP 29: 24.8N 126.2E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

28-KM ROUND EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but may reach the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan on Thursday.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
WEAK OUTER RAINBANDS - its western part affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Cagayan and Isabela. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes, Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama, and Ishigaki Jima beginning today evening through Saturday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon including Eastern and Northern Bicol and Northern Samar (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation