Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Sunday, 23 September 2012 [9:45 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 155 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 10
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 23 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

JELAWAT (LAWIN) barely moving as it continues to rapidly intensify...now a Category 4 Typhoon with winds of 205 kph. This howler is likely to spare Samar and Bicol Provinces as it is forecast to move north later tonight or Monday. Its outer rainbands continues to affect Eastern Visayas and portions of the Bicol Region.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Luzon should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun September 23, 2012
Location of Eye: 12.3º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 367 km (ENE) closer to Borongan City
Distance 2: 446 km (ESE) closer to Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 509 km (ESE) closer to Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 516 km (ESE) closer to Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 551 km (ESE) closer to Legazpi City
Distance 6: 556 km (SE) closer to Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 7: 613 km (ESE) closer to Naga City
Distance 8: 860 km (SE) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Central Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to move north slowly during the next 24 hours...and is likely to make a gradual turn toward the NNW during the next 36 to 48 hours. Between 48 to 72 hours, JELAWAT could turn more to the NW. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will remain over the warm open waters of the Philippine Sea, well to the east of Luzon and not affecting any land areas.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. This system is expected to continue to rapidly strengthen during the next 24 hours...and JELAWAT could become a Super Typhoon on Monday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). JELAWAT is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Starts moving slowly north...becomes a Super Typhoon (Category 4)...about 485 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes [6PM SEP 24: 14.1N 128.7E @ 240kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Turns NNW while moving across the Philippine Sea...weakens below Super Typhoon threshold...about 575 km E of Palanan Bay, Isabela [6PM SEP 25: 16.8N 127.9E @ 230kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Continues to weaken as it turns more northwesterly in the direction of Taiwan...about 456 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6PM SEP 26: 19.0N 126.5E @ 215kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

SMALL, RAGGED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its westernmost part affecting & spreading across Eastern Visayas and portions of Bicol Region. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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