Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Friday, 28 September 2012 [9:33 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
SUPER TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 23
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 28 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Super Typhoon JELAWAT (LAWIN) now moving farther away from the Batanes Group...weakens slightly as it starts to make a recurvature towards Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. This intense typhoon is forecast to pass to the south of Ishigaki Jima this afternoon.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm EWINIAR (19W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), northeast of STY JELAWAT (LAWIN) has slowed its track while moving across the open sea of the NW Pacific. Its center was located about 479 km SSE of Tokyo, Japan (31.8N 141.9E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 100 kph near the center, moving NW @ 02 kph towards the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Yaeyama-Ishigaki-Okinawa Islands and Japan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri September 28, 2012
Location of Eye: 22.3º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km (NE) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 282 km (NE) away from Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 245 km (S) closer to Ishigaki Jima
Distance 4: 310 km (SE) away from Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 387 km (SE) away from Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 605 km (SW) closer to Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Okinawa Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Saturday Afternoon [approx 3PM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 1090 km (590 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 46 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to accelerate NNE to NE-ward during the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will pass near the southern part of Ishigaki Jima this afternoon...and is likely to pass over Okinawa on Saturday afternoon. By Monday morning, JELAWAT is likely to make landfall over the southern part of Honshu in Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 240 km/hr (140 knots) with higher gusts. This intense typhoon will continue to weaken during the next 3 days as it moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,090 kilometers (590 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Just below Super Typhoon strength...recurving and accelerating northeastward as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching Okinawa...about 216 km SW of Okinawa City [6AM SEP 29: 25.1N 126.3E @ 220kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Moving away from Ryukyu Islands...weakens to Category 2...about 268 km ENE of Amami Island [6AM SEP 30: 29.0N 132.0E @ 175kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon as it rapidly accelerates toward the NE...makes landfall over Honshu, Japan...about 110 km W of Tokyo, Japan [6AM OCT 01: 35.5N 138.5E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

62-KM ROUND EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Yaeyama and Ishigaki Jima. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its southwestern part affecting and spreading across Taiwan, Batanes, Calayan, and Babuyan Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes, Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama, and Ishigaki Jima tonight through Saturday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern and Northern Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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