Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Monday, 24 September 2012 [8:35 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 13
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 24 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

JELAWAT (LAWIN) no longer a Super Typhoon as it maintains its NNW track across the Philippine Sea. Outer rainbands still spreading across Bicol and Samar Provinces.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 19W (Unnamed) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), east-northeast of STY JELAWAT (LAWIN) has slightly intensified as it continues to move towards Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands. This depression is not expected to enter PAR. Its center was located about 578 km SSW of Iwo To or 1,762 km ESE of Batanes (20.1N 138.9E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 55 kph near the center, moving North @ 20 kph. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Bicol Region, Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon September 24, 2012
Location of Eye: 14.6º N Lat 128.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 413 km (ENE) away from Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 425 km (ENE) away from Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 461 km (ENE) away from Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 467 km (ENE) away from Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 500 km (ENE) away from Legazpi City
Distance 6: 530 km (ENE) away from Naga City
Distance 7: 552 km (ENE) away from Daet, CamNorte
Distance 8: 657 km (ESE) closer to Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 9: 678 km (E) away from Infanta, Quezon
Distance 10: 743 km (E) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 230 kph (125 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 280 kph (150 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-Yaeyama Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue moving NNW-ward with little change in its forward speed during the next 24 hours...turning NW-ward through 72 hours across the North Philippine Sea. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will just remain over the warm waters of the North Philippine Sea, well to the ENE of Luzon as it moves in the direction of Taiwan-Yaeyama-Ishigaki Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 230 km/hr (125 knots) with higher gusts. This system is expected to maintain its strength during the next 24 hours before weakening in the coming days.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EVENING: Continues to move NNW across the Philippine Sea...maintains its strength...about 511 km E of Palanan, Isabela [6PM SEP 25: 16.8N 127.2E @ 230kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly as it moves towards the sea east of Taiwan, turns NW...about 376 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [6PM SEP 26: 19.3N 125.4E @ 215kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Continues to track NW-ward as it approaches the sea east of Taiwan...weakens to Category 3...about 222 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [6PM SEP 27: 21.2N 124.0E @ 205kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

24-KM ROUND EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its western and southwestern part still affecting & spreading across Samar and Bicol Provinces. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MINDANAO, VISAYAS AND PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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