Saturday, July 29, 2017

Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 013


Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 013




Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Saturday 29 July 2017
Next update: Sunday Early Morning, 30 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) accelerating closer to the coast of Eastern Taiwan…will make landfall near the Hualien-Yilan Border between 7 to 8pm tonight.  Damaging winds with heavy rains will be expected overnight across the island nation. 

The typhoon is expected to move northwest to northwestward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 21 km/hr crossing North-Central Taiwan tonight, and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Sunday morning. NESAT (GORIO) will then make its second landfall along Fujian Province, China by Sunday noon (Jul 30) and eventually weaken rapidly into a Tropical Storm (TS).

Meanwhile at 5pm today, Tropical Storm (TS) HAITANG, upgraded from TD 12W remains outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), about 408 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (18.9N 116.8E). With maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and is forecast to move northeast at 09 kph towards Western Taiwan.  This storm will not directly affect any part of the Philippines.

*TY NESAT (GORIO) and TS HAITANG will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains, gusty wnds and thunderstorms across the Western Sections of Luzon, becoming more frequent along Ilocos Region.  Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 29…0900 GMT. The eye was located approaching the eastern coast of Taiwan (near 24.1N 122.5E), about 96 km east of Hualien City, Taiwan or 370 km north of Itbayat, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center…Gustiness: 170 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 25 kphtowards North-Central Taiwan
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over the Hualien-Yilan Border in Eastern Taiwan between 7-8pm tonight, with a high Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands – Tonight.

+Large and dangerous battering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a severe tropical storm (STS) as it makes landfall over Fujian Province (SE China)…about 50 km west-northwest of Quanzhou, China [2PM July 30: 25.0N 118.2E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a minimal tropical storm (TS) along the northeastern part of Jiangxi Province, China…about 25 km east-southeast of Shangrao, China [2PM July 31: 28.4N 118.2E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Slight to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 515 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat July 29, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 24.1º N Lat 122.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 101 km SE of Yilan, Taiwan
Distance 2: 143 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 398 km ESE of Quanzhou, China
Distance 4: 405 km N of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1057 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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