Friday, July 28, 2017

Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 009


Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 009





Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Friday 28 July 2017
Next update: Saturday Early Morning, 29 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

NESAT (GORIO) has strengthened into a Typhoon (TY) as it accelerated northwestward across the western part of the North Philippine Sea.  

This typhoon is expected to continue moving northwestward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr towards the east coast of Taiwan. It will continue to gain strength through  Saturday afternoon (July 29).

*TY NESAT (GORIO) together with the newly-formed Tropical Depression (TD) 12W located over the South China Sea or about 488 km WNW of Laoag City (18.9N 116.0E) – will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to at times moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 05:00 PM PhT, July 28…0900 GMT. The eye was located over the western part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.2N 124.6E), about 290 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 388 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center…Gustiness: 150 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 24 kphtowards the Taiwan
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Hualien Province in Eastern Taiwan between 6-7pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a high Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands – beginning Friday evening (Jul 28) through Saturday evening (Jul 29).

+Large and dangerous battering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Gaining strength over the East Taiwan Sea as it approaches the east coast of Taiwan…about 295 km north of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM July 29: 23.4N 122.1E @ 120kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Fujian Province in Southeastern China, as it weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 26 km north-northwest of Quanzhou, China [2PM July 30: 25.1N 118.6E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 630 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from the center

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Fri July 28, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.2º N Lat 124.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 293 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 390 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 3: 446 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 438 km SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 823 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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