Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Tropical Depression 11W (GORIO) Update Number 002


Tropical Depression 11W (GORIO) Update Number 002


Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Wednesday 26 July 2017
Next update: Thursday Early Morning, 27 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TD GORIO have maintained its intensity for the past 12 hours. Its rainbands are still providing mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to at times moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Bicol Region.  

It is expected to move north within the next 24 hours at a speed of 14 km/hr over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.

*Residents living along the path of this depression must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is 11W (GORIO)?As of 11:00 AM PhT, July 26…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the western part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.8N 128.1E), about 463 km east-northeast of Panganiban, Catanduanes or 488 km northeast of Laoang, Northern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 19 kphtowards the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea
Potential Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea while maintaining its movement…about 583 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [8AM July 27: 18.4N 127.7E @ 75kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm while changing its movement from north to north-northwest…about 490 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 28: 20.2N 126.7E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon over the western part of Northern Philippine Sea…about 256 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 29: 21.0N 124.4E @ 145kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 50 to 150 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 602 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed July 26, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.8º N Lat 128.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 504 km NE of Jipadpad, Eastern Samar 
Distance 2: 525 km NE of Silvino Lobos, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 535 km NE of San Jose, Northern Samar
Distance 4: 544 km NE of Gandara, Samar
Distance 5: 775 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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