Thursday, July 27, 2017

Fwd: Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 004


Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 004


Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Thursday 27 July 2017
Next update: Thursday Evening, 27 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TS GORIO has intensified into a severe tropical storm (STS GORIO) in the past 12 hours. It enhances the Southwest Monsoon (HABAGAT) which brings cloudy conditions with moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms over the western sections of Luzon and Metro Manila.  

It is expected to move northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 16 km/hr over the Batanes Group of Islands.

*Residents living along the path of this storm must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 AM PhT, July 27…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 18.0N 127.5E), about 590 km east of  Ilagan, Isabela or 639 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 6 kphtowards the Batanes Group of Islands
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Taitung, Taiwan between 9-10am on July 29, with a medium Strike Probability of 60-65%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 365 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 28: 20.3N 125.5E @ 130kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Move towards the East Taiwan Sea and is expected to landfall over the southern sections of Taiwan…about 191 km north of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM July 29: 22.5N 121.9E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a severe tropical storm due to its landfall over the southern sections of Taiwan…about 362 km east-northeast of Hongkong [8AM July 30: 23.3N 117.5E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 676 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu July 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.0º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 670 km NNE of Sorsogon, Sorsogon
Distance 2: 674 km NE of Legazpi, Albay
Distance 3: 730 km NNE of Calbayog, Western Samar
Distance 4: 745 km NNE of Borongan , Eastern Samar
Distance 5: 795 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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