Friday, July 28, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 007


Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 007


Issued at: 06:15 AM PhT (22:15 GMT) Friday 28 July 2017
Next update: Friday Afternoon, 28 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) has maintained its strength during the past 6 hours as it move north-northwest towards the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.  

It is expected to move northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr towards the eastern part of Bashi Channel, and is likely to become a typhoon by Saturday early morning (July 29).

*STS NESAT (GORIO) and Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 92W continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to at times moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 05:00 AM PhT, July 28…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.8N 126.2E), about 444 km east of Basco, Batanes or 498 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 18 kphtowards the Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Chenggong, Taiwan between 5-6pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon while over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel…about 206 km east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM July 29: 21.8N 123.5E @ 140kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a typhoon…about 195 km east-southeast of Xiamen, China [2AM July 30: 23.9N 119.9E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a tropical storm as it move towards Southeastern China…about 212 km northeast of Xiamen, China [2AM July 31: 25.9N 119.5E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 726 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Fri July 28, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.8º N Lat 126.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 508 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 530 km ENE of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 565 km NE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 599 km NE of Santiago  City, Isabela
Distance 5: 797 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines



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