Friday, July 28, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 006


Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 006 


Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Friday 28 July 2017
Next update: Friday Morning, 28 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) has maintained its strength during the past 6 hours while moving slowly northwestward across the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.  

This severe storm is expected to continue moving northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 19 km/hr towards the Bashi Channel, and is likely to become a Typhoon by Friday Evening (July 28).

*Both STS NESAT (GORIO) and Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 92W continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). For the next couple of days, the enhanced monsoon is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 PM PhT, July 27…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9N 126.6E), about 492 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 540 km east-southeast of Itbayat, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 13 kphtowards the Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Chenggong, Taiwan between 6-7pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a typhoon while over the western part of the North Philippine Sea…about 246 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM July 28: 21.5N 124.1E @ 130kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EVENING: Maintains its intensity and makes landfall over the Southeastern part of Taiwan…about 303 km north-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM July 29: 23.4N 121.0E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens to a tropical storm as it move towards Southeastern China…about 76 km south of Xiamen, China [8PM July 30: 23.8N 118.2E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu July 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 126.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 524 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 534 km ENE of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 555 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 587 km ENE of Santiago  City, Isabela
Distance 5: 762 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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