Saturday, July 29, 2017

Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 010


Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 010


Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Saturday 29 July 2017
Next update: Saturday Morning, 29 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TY NESAT (GORIO) has gained strength in the past 6 hours as it moves northwestward across the eastern part of the Bashi Channel.  

This typhoon is expected to continue moving northwestward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 20 km/hr towards the Hualien Province in Eastern Taiwan. It will maintain its intensity through Saturday evening (July 29).

*TY NESAT (GORIO) and Tropical Depression (TD) 12W continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 PM PhT, July 28…1500 GMT. The eye was located over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel (near 21.6N 124.0E), about 242 km east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes or 324 km east-southeast of Taitung, Taiwan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 13 kphtowards Taiwan
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Hualien Province in Eastern Taiwan between 5-6pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a high Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands – beginning Friday evening (Jul 28) through Saturday evening (Jul 29).

+Large and dangerous battering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Maintains its strength as it landfall over Hualien Province in Eastern Taiwan…about 89 km south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM July 29: 24.3N 121.2E @ 130kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Makes another landfall over Fujian Province in Southeastern China, as it weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 61 km north-northwest of Quanzhou, China [8PM July 30: 25.4N 118.5E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 445 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from the center

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri July 28, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.6º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 397 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 437 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 503 km NNE of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 538 km NNE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 841 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines



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