Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 008

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 008 Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Friday 28 July 2017 Next update: Friday Evening, 28 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook	Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) has tracked west-northwest during the past 6 hours while maintaining its strength over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea. This cyclone is expected to resume moving northwestward for the next 24 hours at an increased speed of 17 km/hr towards the northeastern part of Bashi Channel, and is likely to become a typhoon by Saturday early morning (July 29). *STS NESAT (GORIO) together with Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 92W located over the South China Sea will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to at times moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.
Where is NESAT (GORIO)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT, July 28…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.2N 125.5E), about 369 km east of Basco, Batanes or 387 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving West-Northwest @ 14 kph, towards the Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s)	:: Along Changbin-Cheegong Area in Taiwan between 5-6pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*	:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon while over the northeastern part of the Bashi Channel…about 203 km north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM July 29: 22.3N 122.9E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. SUNDAY MORNING: Over Taiwan Strait (outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm after traversing Taiwan…about 87 km east-southeast of Quanzhou, China [8AM July 30: 24.6N 119.5E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. MONDAY MORNING: Weakens into a minimal tropical storm while moving across the rugged terrain of Southeastern China…about 90 km west-southwest of Fuzhou, China [8AM July 31: 25.7N 118.5E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 610 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri July 28, 2017 Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.2º N Lat 125.5º E Lon Distance 1: 382 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes Distance 2: 433 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan Distance 3: 453 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 4: 468 km NE of Palanan, Isabela Distance 5: 779 km NE of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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