Thursday, July 27, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 005


Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 005





Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Thursday 27 July 2017
Next update: Friday Early Morning, 28 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) has maintained its strength during the past 6 hours while moving slowly northwestward across the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.  

This strong storm is expected to continue moving northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 18 km/hr towards the Bashi Channel, and is likely to become a Typhoon by Friday afternoon (Jul 28).

*STS NESAT (GORIO) together with a developing LPA 92W located about 410 km WNW of Laoag City (18.8N 116.7E) – will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across the Western Sections of Luzon including MiMaRoPa. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT, July 27…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the Southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.4N 127.1E), about 522 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 582 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 10 kphtowards the Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Taitung, Taiwan between 2-3pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon while over the western part of the North Philippine Sea…about 271 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM July 28: 20.9N 124.6E @ 130kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Makes landfall over the Southeastern part of Taiwan…about 254 km north-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM July 29: 23.0N 121.3E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a severe tropical storm as it bears down the coast of Southeastern China…about 58 km south-southeast of Xiamen, China [2PM July 30: 24.0N 118.3E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 676 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu July 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.4º N Lat 127.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 516 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 575 km E of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Distance 3: 580 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 606 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 5: 774 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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