Saturday, July 29, 2017

Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 011


Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 011


Issued at: 06:15 AM PhT (22:15 GMT) Saturday 29 July 2017
Next update: Saturday Afternoon, 29 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) has maintained its strength in the past 6 hours as it moves west-northwestward across the eastern part of the Bashi Channel.  

It is expected to move northwestward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 20 km/hr towards the Hualien Province in Eastern Taiwan. It will weaken into a severe tropical storm (STS) through Sunday early morning (July 30).

*TY NESAT (GORIO) and Tropical Depression (TD) 12W continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 05:00 AM PhT, July 29…2100 GMT. The eye was located over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel (near 22.0N 123.3E), about 203 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes or 240 km east-southeast of Taitung, Taiwan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 155 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 14 kphtowards Taiwan
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Hualien Province in Eastern Taiwan between 7-8pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a high Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands – beginning Saturday morning (Jul 29) through Sunday morning (Jul 30).

+Large and dangerous battering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a severe tropical storm (STS) over the northernmost section of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 98 km west of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM July 30: 24.9N 120.6E @ 110kph]Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Fujian Province in Southeastern China, as it weakens into a tropical storm (TS)…about 22 km south-southwest of Fuzhou, China [2AM July 31: 25.9N 119.2E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Slight to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 435 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Sat July 29, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 22.0º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 381 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 585 km NNE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 509 km NNE of Laoag  City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 4: 546 km NNE of Tabuk City, Kalinga
Distance 5: 858 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines



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