Thursday, July 27, 2017

Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 003



Issued at: 11:45 PM PhT (15:45 GMT) Wednesday 26 July 2017
Next update: Thursday Afternoon, 27 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TD GORIO have intensified into a tropical storm (TS GORIO) in the past 12 hours with an international name of "NESAT". Its rainbands still continues to provide cloudy conditions with light to at times moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Bicol Region.  

It is expected to move north-northwest within the next 24 hours at a slow speed of 9 km/hr over the Balintang Channel.

*Residents living along the path of this storm must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 PM PhT, July 26…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.3N 127.9E), about 538 km northeast of Bagamanoc, Catanduanes or 580 km northeast of San Andres, Catanduanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 16 kphtowards the Balintang Channel
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Manzhou, Taiwan between 6-7pm on July 29, with a high Strike Probability of 80-85%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a typhoon over the eastern part of the Balintang Channel while maintaining its movement…about 501 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM July 27: 18.8N 126.9E @ 120kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies while moving towards Batanes Group of Islands…about 312 km east of Basco, Batanes [8PM July 28: 20.6N 125.0E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EVENING: Landfall as a typhoon over the southern sections of Taiwan…about 225 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM July 29: 22.3N 120.4E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 50 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 586 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed July 26, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.3º N Lat 127.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 610 km E of Divilacan, Isabela
Distance 2: 620 km NE of Bacacay, Albay
Distance 3: 625 km NE of Tigaon, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 633 km E of Penablanca, Cagayan
Distance 5: 794 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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