Saturday, July 29, 2017

Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 012


Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 012





Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Saturday 29 July 2017
Next update: Saturday Evening, 29 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon NESAT (GORIO) has slightly intensified as it jogged north-northwestward during the past six hours, across the East Taiwan Sea.  Its southern outer rain bands has started to move away from Batanes Group of Islands. 

The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest to northwestward for the next 24 hours at an increased speed of 22 km/hr towards the Eastern Taiwan, and will make two landfalls between Northern Hualien and Southern Yilan tonight, and over the Eastern Fujian Province (China) by Sunday morning (Jul 30). NESAT (GORIO) will eventually  weaken into a Tropical Storm (TS) after its two landfalls.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression (TD) 12W continues to move erratically over the South Chian Sea, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), about 453 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (18.3N 116.3E). This new cyclone has a maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center and is forecast to move northeast to north-northeastward in the general direction of Western Taiwan within the next 24 to 48 hours and will not directly affect the Philippines. TD 12w is likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today or Sunday (Jul 30).

*TY NESAT (GORIO) and TD 12W will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) – where mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to moderate occasional rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila – becoming more frequent along Ilocos Provinces. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 29…0300 GMT. The eye was located over the southeastern part of the East Taiwan Sea (near 22.8N 122.9E), about 187 km east of Taitung City, Taiwan or 252 km north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center…Gustiness: 170 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 16 kphtowards Eastern Taiwan
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Northern Hualien or Southern Yilan in Eastern Taiwan between 8-10pm this evening, with a high Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands – Today.

+Large and dangerous battering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a minimal typhoon (TY) while making its last landfall over Fujian Province (SE China), outside of PAR…about 46 km south-southeast of Fuzhou City, China [8AM July 30: 25.7N 119.5E @ 120kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Weakens into a minimal tropical storm (TS) along the Zhejiang-Fujian Border in SE China…about 101 km west of Cangnan, China [8AM July 31: 27.6N 119.4E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Slight to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 560 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat July 29, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 22.8º N Lat 122.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 188 km SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 2: 279 km NNE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 291 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 508 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 924 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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