Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 015

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued at: 9:00 AM PhT (01:00 GMT) Wednesday 16 December 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Afternoon, 16 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has further weakened as it continues to move slowly to the northwest over the West Philippine Sea...expected to change course towards the southwest within the next 24 hours.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing rains with some thunderstorms across Northern and Central Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Tagalog Provinces incl. Palawan and Western sections of Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Bataan, Pampanga, Zambales, Tarlac, Western Nueva Ecija and Cavite - Today (Dec 16).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Bataan and Cavite incl. Lubang Isaland - Today (Dec 16)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 16...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: In the vicinity of Lubang Island...(near 14.2N 119.8E)
About: 62 km northwest of Lubang Island...or 86 km southwest of Subic Bay, Zambales
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 175 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: Southwest @ 3 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move southwestward very slowly during the next 24 hours...accelerating significantly through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday early morning (Dec 18).

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken over the West Philippine Sea due to the arrival of the cool dry air of the northeast monsoon (amihan) and will further lose strength while moving over the Southern part of the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm...slowly moves southwestward across the West Philippine Sea...about 97 km west of Lubang Island [2AM DEC 17: 13.8N 119.3E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression as it accelerates southwestward...about 329 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM DEC 18: 9.7N 115.7E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into an area of Low Pressure after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 585 km west-southwest of Balabac, Palawan [2AM DEC 19: 7.6N 111.8E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Dec 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.2º N Lat 119.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 119 km W of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 2: 137 km WNW of Batangas City
Distance 3: 157 km NW of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 4: 124 km SSW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 5: 133 km WSW of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph