Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 013

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 013

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 December 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Early Morning, 16 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has weakened slightly and slowed down while traversing Northern Occidental Mindoro...currently over the town of Abra de Ilog. The typhoon has made its third landfall along Pinakamalayan and Pola Area in Oriental Mindoro between 10-11 AM this morning.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing scattered rains with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Tagalog Provinces incl. Palawan should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro and Batangas - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Burias Island, Northern part of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite and Bataan - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northwestern Panay, Northern Masbate, Bulacan, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Coron Is. and rest of Camarines Sur - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Lubang Island and the Coastal areas of Northern Occidental Mindoro - Tonight through until morning (Dec 16).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Northern Oriental Mindoro, Southern Occidental Mindoro - Tonight until Wednesday morning (Dec 16).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, and Cavite - Tonight until Wednesday morning (Dec 16).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Occidental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Batangas, and Southern Quezon - Tonight until Wednesday (Dec 16)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 15...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the town of Abra de Ilog, Occidental Mindoro...(near 13.4N 120.8E)
About: 16 km southwest of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro...or 49 km south-southwest of Batangas City
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 06 kph
Towards: Lubang Island-West Philippine Sea Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move slowly west-northwestward during the next 24 hours away from the northwestern coasts of Mindoro, turning sharply to the southwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea late tonight through Wednesday (Dec 16) and shall accelerate across the southern part of West Philippine Sea.

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken while over the West Philippine Sea due to the arrival of cool dry air from the north and will further lose strength while moving over the Southern part of the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slowly as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...turns abrubtly Southwest...about 66 km west of Lubang Island [2PM DEC 16: 13.7N 119.6E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it turns sharply to southwest track...about 220 km west-northwest of El Nido, Palawan [2PM DEC 17: 11.7N 117.7E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression as it continues to move faster southwestward out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 293 km south-southwest of Pagasa Island, Spratlys [2PM DEC 18: 8.7N 113.2E @ 45kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Dec 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.4º N Lat 120.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km W of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 2: 79 km SE of Lubang Island
Distance 3: 81 km SSW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 4: 113 km S of Corregidor Island
Distance 5: 137 km SSW of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph