Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 011

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 011

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 8:45 AM PhT (00:45 GMT) Tuesday 15 December 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Afternoon, 15 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has maintained its strength as it moves across the Sibuyan Sea in a generally westerly track...about to make its next landfall over Oriental Mindoro.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Northwestern Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro and Batangas - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Burias Island, Northern part of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite and Bataan - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northwestern Panay, Northern Masbate, Bulacan, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Coron Is. and rest of Camarines Sur - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Marinduque and the Coastal areas of Northern Oriental Mindoro - Today (Dec 15).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Southern Quezon, Romblon, Eastern Batangas and Oriental Mindoro - Today (Dec 15).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Mindoro, rest of Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Bataan and Cavite - this afternoon until Wednesday morning (Dec 16).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Batangas, Romblon and Southern Quezon - Today until Wednesday (Dec 16)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 15...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over Romblon-Marinduque Area...(near 12.9N 122.2E)
About: 70 km southeastt of Boac, Marinduque...or 35 km north-northwest of Romblon
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 11 kph
Towards: Northern Mindoro

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 hours, turning sharply to the west and west-southwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, the eye of MELOR (NONA) shall make landfall over the northern part of Oriental Mindoro late this morning. By early Wednesday morning (Dec 16), MELOR (NONA) shall be emerging over the West Philippine Sea.

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken further after crossing Northern Mindoro and will be significantly losing further strength while moving over the West Philippine Sea. By 48 hours, the cyclone will just be a weak Tropical Storm over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it crosses the northern part of Mindoro...about 69 km west-northwest of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro [2AM DEC 16: 13.7N 120.3E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further...turns to west and west-southwest track as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...about 229 km west-southwest of Lubang Island 2AM DEC 17: 12.9N 118.3E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into an area of Low Pressure...bends to southwest track...about 92 km south-southeast of Pagasa Island. [2AM DEC 18: 10.3N 114.5E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Dec 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 12.9º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km WSW of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 2: 133 km SW of Metro Naga, CamSur
Distance 3: 166 km WNW of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 4: 156 km ESE of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 5: 117 km ESE of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 6: 220 km SE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph