Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 005

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 005

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Sunday 13 December 2015
Next Update: Monday Early Morning, 14 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) rapidly intensifying with the appearance of a pin-hole eye...continues to endanger the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Northern Samar on Monday (Dec 14) between 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM...with a Strike Probability of 80-90 percent.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning Monday (Dec 14). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Albay, Sorsogon and Northern Samar - Beginning Monday morning through Tuesday morning (Dec 15) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Bicol Region and Rest of Samar Provinces - Beginning Monday Morning through Tuesday Morning (Dec 15).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Leyte, Marinduque, Romblon, Northern Panay and Southern Quezon - Beginning Monday Morning through Tuesday Morning (Dec 15).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Northern Samar and Eastern Sorsogon - Beginning Monday Noon (Dec 14).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): North Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Rest of Sorsogon, Albay, and Eastern Masbate incl. Ticao - Beginning Monday Afternoon (Dec 14).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Samar, Rest of Bicol Region, Northern Leyte, and Southern Quezon - Begining Monday Afternoon (Dec 14).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern and Eastern Samar and Bicol Region - Beginning Monday Morning until Tuesday morning (Dec 15)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 13...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the south-central part of the Philippine Sea...(near 12.3N 128.5E)
About: 424 km east-southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar...or 528 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest to West @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Samar-Southern Bicol Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to bend to the west during the next 24 hours, and slightly turning back to the west-northwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall make landfall across the shores of Northern Samar by Monday (Dec 14) between 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM...passing very close to Southern Sorsogon-Ticao Area Monday evening and emerging over the Sibuyan Sea, very near Burias Island by early Tuesday morning (Dec 15). On Tuesday afternoon, MELOR (NONA) shall be making landfall anew over Oriental Mindoro, passing very near Calapan.

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to further intensify during the next 24 hours...and shall weaken considerably through the remainder of forecast period as it crosses the landmass of Northern Samar, Southern Bicol, and Mindoro.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak strength as it makes landfall along the shores of Northern Samar...about 16 km north-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar [2PM DEC 14: 12.6N 124.7E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall anew over Oriental Mindoro...about 25 km southeast of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro [2PM DEC 15: 13.1N 121.3E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...about 127 km west-southwest of Lubang Island [2PM DEC 16: 13.4N 119.1E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Dec 13, 2015
Location of Center: Near 12.3º N Lat 128.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 346 km ENE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 488 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 494 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 532 km E of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 592 km SE of Metro Naga, CamSur
Distance 6: 850 km SE of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph