Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 012

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 012

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued at: 2:30 PM PhT (06:30 GMT) Tuesday 15 December 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Evening, 15 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has significantly re-intensified before it makes another landfall over the eastern shore of Northern Oriental Mindoro.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Northwestern Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro and Batangas - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Burias Island, Northern part of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite and Bataan - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northwestern Panay, Northern Masbate, Bulacan, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Coron Is. and rest of Camarines Sur - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Marinduque and the Coastal areas of Northern Oriental Mindoro - Today (Dec 15).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Southern Quezon, Romblon, Eastern Batangas and Oriental Mindoro - Today (Dec 15).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Mindoro, rest of Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Bataan and Cavite - this afternoon until Wednesday morning (Dec 16).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Batangas, Romblon and Southern Quezon - Today until Wednesday (Dec 16)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 15...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the eastern coast of Northern Oriental Mindoro...(near 13.1N 121.5E)
About: 47 km southwest of Boac, Marinduque...or 103 km northwest of Romblon
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 10 kph
Towards: Northern Mindoro

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 hours along the coasts of Northern Mindoro, turning sharply to the west and southwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea Wednesday morning (Dec 16).

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken after traversing Northern Mindoro and will further lose strength while moving over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...turns west...about 55 km west-northwest of Lubang Island [8AM DEC 16: 13.7N 119.7E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens further as it turns sharply to southwest track...about 255 km west-northwest of Coron Island 8AM DEC 17: 12.8N 118.0E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it continues to move southwestward out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 212 km southwest of Pagasa Island. [8AM DEC 18: 9.6N 113.1E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue Dec 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.1º N Lat 121.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 238 km W of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 2: 192 km WSW of Metro Naga, CamSur
Distance 3: 245 km NW of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 4: 79 km SE of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 5: 47 km SE of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 6: 165 km SSE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph