Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 009

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 009

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Monday 14 December 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Early Morning, 15 December 2015

The Eye of Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has made its second landfall over Bulusan, Sorsogon at around 4-5 PM this afternoon. It is currently moving towards Ticao and Burias Islands. Stormy Weather will continue to prevail across the Bicol Region throughout the evening. A WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Stations (AWS) in Casiguran, Sorsogon (Brgy. Central) has recorded a Typhoon Force Wind Gusts of 185 kph from 5:10 PM to 5:20 PM today.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning today (Dec 14). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Albay, Sorsogon, Northwestern Samar, Southern Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Southernmost part of Quezon, Masbate, Romblon and Marinduque incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Oriental Mindoro, - Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Bicol Region, Rest of Northern Samar, Western Part of Samar, Occidental Mindoro and Rest of Southern Quezon - Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Leyte, Northern Panay, Rest of Quezon, Rizal, Laguna, and Eastern Batangas - Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Burias-Ticao Islands and Sorsogon - Tonight (Dec 14).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Northern Samar, Rest of Albay, Masbate, Bondoc Peninsula, Marinduque, and Romblon - Tonight until Tuesday (Dec 15).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Samar, Rest of Bicol Region and Rest of Southern Quezon - Tonight until Tuesday (Dec 15).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern and Western Samar, Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Romblon and Marinduque - Tonight until Tuesday morning (Dec 15)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 14...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: In the vicinity of Irosin, Sorsogon...(near 12.7N 124.0E)
About: 33 km south of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon...or 55 km southeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 180 kph near the center...Gustiness: 220 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 110 km from the center
Past Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 15 kph
Towards: Ticao-Burias Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 hours, turning slightly to the west with decreasing forward speed through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall emerge over the Ragay Gulf and will be passing across Ticao-Burias Islands Area this evening and emerging over the Sibuyan Sea by early Tuesday morning (Dec 15). On Tuesday morning, MELOR (NONA) shall be making landfall anew over the northernmost part of Oriental Mindoro, passing very near Calapan Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon (Dec 16), the cyclone shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea, moving away from the country.

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken further after crossing Southern Bicol and will continue losing strength while traversing the Sibuyan Sea. It shall further weaken significantly upon making its second landfall over Northern Mindoro. By 48 hours, the cyclone will be just a weak Tropical Depression over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it crosses Oriental Mindoro...about 31 km southeast of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro [2PM DEC 15: 13.3N 121.1E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression after crossing Northern Mindoro...emerging over the West Philippine Sea...about 88 km southwest of Lubang Island [2PM DEC 16: 13.4N 119.5E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into an area of Low Pressure...bends slowly to the west-southwest and southwest track...about 326 km west of Coron, Palawan [2PM DEC 17: 11.9N 117.2E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Dec 14, 2015
Location of Center: Near 12.7º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 62 km NE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 2: 92 km SSW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 101 km SE of Iriga City, CamSur
Distance 4: 103 km ESE of Burias Island
Distance 5: 132 km SE of Metro Naga, CamSur
Distance 6: 378 km SE of Metro Manila