Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 006
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 2:30 AM PhT (18:30 GMT) Monday 14 December 2015
Next Update: Monday Mid-Morning, 14 December 2015
MELOR (NONA) still rapidly gaining strength as it moves closer to the east coast of Northern Samar...endangers Bicol Region and Samar Provinces. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Northern Samar this afternoon between 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM...with a Strike Probability of 80-90 percent.
MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning Monday (Dec 14). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.
Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Albay, Sorsogon and Northern Samar - Beginning Monday morning through Tuesday morning (Dec 15) .
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Bicol Region and Rest of Samar Provinces - Beginning Monday Morning through Tuesday Morning (Dec 15).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Leyte, Marinduque, Romblon, Northern Panay and Southern Quezon - Beginning Monday Morning through Tuesday Morning (Dec 15).
- Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Northern Samar and Eastern Sorsogon - Beginning Monday Noon (Dec 14).
- Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): North Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Rest of Sorsogon, Albay, and Eastern Masbate incl. Ticao - Beginning Monday Afternoon (Dec 14).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Samar, Rest of Bicol Region, Northern Leyte, and Southern Quezon - Begining Monday Afternoon (Dec 14).
- Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern and Eastern Samar and Bicol Region - Beginning Monday Morning until Tuesday morning (Dec 15)
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, December 13...1500 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the south-central part of the Philippine Sea...(near 12.3N 127.5E)
About: 316 km east-southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar...or 422 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center...Gustiness: 240 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Samar-Southern Bicol Area
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK
TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to continue moving westward during the next 24 hours, and turning back to the west-northwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall make landfall across the shores of Northern Samar, very near Catarman by Monday (Dec 14) between 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM...passing very close to Southern Sorsogon-Ticao Area Monday evening and emerging over the Sibuyan Sea, by early Tuesday morning (Dec 15). On Tuesday afternoon, MELOR (NONA) shall be making landfall anew over Oriental Mindoro, passing very near Calapan.
TY MELOR (NONA) is still forecast to intensify during the next 12 hours...and shall weaken considerably throughout the remainder of the forecast period as it crosses the landmass of Northern Samar, Southern Bicol and Mindoro.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
MONDAY EVENING: Starts losing strength after traversing Northern Samar, in the vicinity of Ticao Island...about 39 km east-northeast of Masbate City, Masbate [8PM DEC 14: 12.6N 123.9E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it crosses Northern Mindoro...about 33 km south of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro [8PM DEC 15: 13.2N 121.0E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens further as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea in a slow west-southwest track...about 156 km northwest of Coron, Palawan [8PM DEC 16: 12.9N 119.1E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Dec 13, 2015
Location of Center: Near 12.3º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 241 km ENE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 386 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 388 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 424 km E of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 488 km ESE of Metro Naga, CamSur
Distance 6: 738 km SE of Metro Manila
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph
Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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