Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 010

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 010

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued at: 2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 December 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Mid-Morning, 15 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has weakened as it traverses Burias Island in the general direction of Oriental Mindoro. A WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Stations (AWS) in Casiguran, Sorsogon (Brgy. Central) has recorded a Typhoon Force Wind Gusts of 185 kph from 5:10 PM to 5:20 PM Dec 14.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Albay, Sorsogon, Northwestern Samar, Southern Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Southernmost part of Quezon, Masbate, Romblon and Marinduque incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Oriental Mindoro, - Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Bicol Region, Rest of Northern Samar, Western Part of Samar, Occidental Mindoro and Rest of Southern Quezon - Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Leyte, Northern Panay, Rest of Quezon, Rizal, Laguna, and Eastern Batangas - Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Burias-Ticao Islands and Sorsogon - Tonight (Dec 14).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Northern Samar, Rest of Albay, Masbate, Bondoc Peninsula, Marinduque, and Romblon - Tonight until Tuesday (Dec 15).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Samar, Rest of Bicol Region and Rest of Southern Quezon - Tonight until Tuesday (Dec 15).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern and Western Samar, Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Romblon and Marinduque - Tonight until Tuesday (Dec 15)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, December 14...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: In the vicinity of Burias Island...(near 12.9N 122.9E)
About: 16 km southwest of San Pascual, Burias Is...or 73 km east-northeast of Romblon
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 220 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 110 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 12 kph
Towards: Oriental Mindoro

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 hours, turning slightly to the west with decreasing forward speed through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall make landfall over the northern part of Oriental Mindoro this afternoon. By early Wednesday morning (Dec 16), MELOR (NONA) shall be emerging over the West Philippine Sea.

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken further after crossing Southern Bicol and will continue losing strength while traversing the Sibuyan Sea. It shall further weaken significantly upon making its second landfall over Northern Mindoro. By 48 hours, the cyclone will be just a weak Tropical Depression over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY EVENING: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it crosses the northern part of Oriental Mindoro...about 39 km west-southwest of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro [8PM DEC 15: 13.3N 120.6E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression after crossing Northern Mindoro...emerging over the West Philippine Sea...about 109 km southwest of Lubang Island 8PM DEC 16: 13.2N 119.4E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
THURSDAY EVENING: Weakens into an area of Low Pressure...bends slowly to the west-southwest and southwest track...about 360 km west of El Nido, Palawan [8PM DEC 17: 11.4N 116.4E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Mon Dec 14, 2015
Location of Center: Near 12.9º N Lat 122.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 93 km WNW of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 2: 84 km SSW of Metro Naga, CamSur
Distance 3: 101 km NW of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 4: 131 km SE of Boac, Marinduque
Distance 5: 189 km ESE of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 6: 271 km SE of Metro Manila