Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 003

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 003

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 8:15 AM PhT (00:15 GMT) Sunday 13 December 2015
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 13 December 2015

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) continues to gain strength while moving across the central part of the Philippine Sea...now threatens the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Northern Samar on Monday afternoon (Dec 14)...with a Strike Probability of 70-80 percent.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning Monday (Dec 14). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of TS MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Eastern and Northern Samar, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Eastern Camarines Sur (Partido District) - Beginning this afternoon through Monday afternoon (Dec 14).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Samar and Bicol Provinces - Beginning Tonight through Monday Evening (Dec 14).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Northern Samar and Catanduanes - Begining Monday Morning (Dec 14).

Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph):Rest of Samar, Albay, Sorsogon - Beginning Monday Morning (Dec 14).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 13...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea...(near 11.7N 130.7E)
About: 577 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 726 km southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center...Gustiness: 130 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to West @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Samar-Southern Bicol Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS MELOR (NONA) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours, bending more westerly throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall make landfall across the shores of Northern Samar by Monday afternoon (Dec 14)...passing very close to Masbate-Ticao Area Monday evening and emerging over the Sibuyan Sea by early Tuesday morning (Dec 15).

TS MELOR (NONA) is forecast to intensify into a Typhoon this afternoon and will continue gaining strength through the next 24 hours...maintaining its intensify throughout the outlook period.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it moves barely westward approaching the east coast of Northern Samar...about 176 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM DEC 14: 12.3N 126.9E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the Sibuyan Sea as it traverses Northern Visayas...about 64 km west-northwest of Masbate, Masbate [2AM DEC 15: 12.6N 123.1E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it crosses Mindoro...about 40 km south-southwest of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro [2AM DEC 16: 13.2N 120.7E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Dec 13, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.7º N Lat 130.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 551 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 669 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 752 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 776 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 5: 841 km SE of Metro Naga, CamSur

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph