Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 008

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 008

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued at: 2:30 PM PhT (06:30 GMT) Monday 14 December 2015
Next Update: Monday Evening, 14 December 2015

The Eye of Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has made landfall over Laoang, Northern Samar at around 10:20 this morning. It is currently moving towards Sorsogon, endagering the area and other nearby provinces in Southern Luzon. The WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Stations (AWS) in Catarman (Catarman Airport-Philippine Airlines) has recorded a Typhoon Force Wind Gusts of 170 kph from 1:00 PM to 1:20 PM today.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning today (Dec 14). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Southernmost part of Quezon, Masbate, Romblon and Marinduque incl. Burias and Ticao Islands - Today through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Bicol Region and Samar Provinces, Oriental Mindoro and rest of Southern Quezon - Today through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Leyte, rest of Quezon, Northern Panay, Rizal, Laguna, Eastern Batangas and Occidental Mindoro - Today through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Northern Samar and Eastern Sorsogon - Today (Dec 14).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): North Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Rest of Sorsogon, Albay, and Eastern Masbate incl. Ticao - Today until Tuesday (Dec 15).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Samar, Rest of Bicol Region, Northern Leyte, and Southern Quezon - Today until Tuesdau (Dec 15).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern and Eastern Samar and Bicol Region - Today until Tuesday morning (Dec 15)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 14...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: In the vicinity of Laoang, Northern Samar...(near 12.6N 125.1E)
About: 55 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar...or 166 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 938 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center
Past Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 24 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 15 kph
Towards: Northern Samar-Sorsogon Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to continue moving generally westward during the next 12 hours, turning slightly to the west-northwest with decreasing forward speed through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall cross Sorsogon late this afernoon and will be passing across Ticao-Burias Islands Area this evening and emerging over the Sibuyan Sea by early Tuesday morning (Dec 15). On Tuesday afternoon, MELOR (NONA) shall be making landfall anew over Oriental Mindoro, passing very near Calapan.

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to start to weaken after crossing Southern Bicol and will continue losing strength while traversing the Sibuyan Sea. It shall further weaken significantly upon making its second landfall over Northern Mindoro.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Starts losing strength while traversing the Sibuyan Sea...about 109 km east of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro [8AM DEC 15: 13.2N 122.2E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it crosses Northern Mindoro...emerging over the West Philippine Sea...about 173 km west of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro [8AM DEC 16: 13.5N 119.3E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens into an area of Low Pressure...bends slowly to the west-southwest and southwest track...about 381 km west of Coron, Palawan [8AM DEC 17: 12.3N 116.7E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon Dec 14, 2015
Location of Center: Near 12.6º N Lat 125.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km NW of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 148 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 127 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 166 km ENE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 234 km ESE of Metro Naga, CamSur
Distance 6: 491 km ESE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph