Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 017

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 017

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Wednesday 16 December 2015
Next Update: Thursday Morning, 17 December 2015

MELOR (NONA) has abruptly weakened into a Tropical Storm as the surge of cold dry of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) affects the system. With the effects of these two weather systems, continuing rainy conditions across Northern and Central Luzon including Southern Tagalog Provinces will prevail through the night.

MELOR (NONA) will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing widespread rains with some thunderstorms across Northern and Central Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Southern Tagalog Provinces incl. Palawan and Western sections of Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Bataan, Pampanga, Zambales, Tarlac, Western Nueva Ecija and Cavite - Tonight (Dec 16).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 16...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS MELOR (NONA)
Location: Near the coast of Western Zambales...(near 15.0N 119.7E)
About: 46 km southwest of Iba, Zambales...or 68 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: North-Northeast @ 08 kph
Forecast Movement: South-Southwest @ 11 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS MELOR (NONA) is expected to move south-southwest slowly within the next 24 hours...and to the southwest sharply with increasing forward speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday morning (Dec 18).

TS MELOR (NONA) is forecast to continue losing strength over the West Philippine Sea due to the arrival of the cool dry air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and will further lose strength while moving over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea, becoming a low pressure area on Friday afternoon (Dec 18).

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further as it accelerates southwestward across the West Philippine Sea...about 166 km southwest of Lubang Island [2PM DEC 17: 13.0N 118.9E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into an area of Low Pressure as it accelerates and moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 341 km west of Bataraza, Palawan [2PM DEC 18: 8.7N 114.5E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Dec 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.0º N Lat 119.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 120 km WSW of Malolos, Bulacan
Distance 2: 128 km SSW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 144 km NNW of Lubang Island
Distance 4: 145 km SSW of Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 5: 157 km WNW of Metro Manila

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph