Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 007

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 007

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued at: 8:40 AM PhT (00:40 GMT) Monday 14 December 2015
Next Update: Monday Afternoon, 14 December 2015

MELOR (NONA) is now approaching the eastern shores of Northern Samar...endangering the area and nearby provinces particularly Bicol Region. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Northern Samar today between 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM...with a Strike Probability of 80-90 percent.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning today (Dec 14). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Southernmost part of Quezon, Northernmost part of Masbate and Marinduque incl. Burias and Ticao Islands - Beginning this morning through Tuesday morning (Dec 15) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Bicol Region and Samar Provinces, and rest of Masbate and Southern Quezon incl. Romblon Is. - Beginning this morning through Tuesday Morning (Dec 15).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Leyte, rest of Quezon and Romblon Provinces, Northern Panay, Rizal, Laguna, Eastern Batangas and Oriental Mindoro - Beginning this morning through Tuesday Afternoon (Dec 15).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Northern Samar and Eastern Sorsogon - Beginning Monday Noon (Dec 14).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): North Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Rest of Sorsogon, Albay, and Eastern Masbate incl. Ticao - Beginning this morning (Dec 14).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Samar, Rest of Bicol Region, Northern Leyte, and Southern Quezon - Begining this morning (Dec 14).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern and Eastern Samar and Bicol Region - Beginning this morning until Tuesday morning (Dec 15)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 14...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the western south-central part of the Philippine Sea...(near 12.4N 126.4E)
About: 196 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar...or 303 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 938 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 18 kph
Towards: Northern Samar-Southern Bicol Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to continue moving generally westward during the next 12 hours, and turning to the west-northwest with decreasing forward speed through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall make landfall across the shores of Northern Samar, very near Catarman today (Dec 14) between 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM...passing very close to Southern Sorsogon-Ticao Area late this evening and emerging over the Sibuyan Sea by early Tuesday morning (Dec 15). On Tuesday afternoon, MELOR (NONA) shall be making landfall anew over Oriental Mindoro, passing very near Calapan.

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to start weakening after it crosses the landmass of Northern Samar, Southern Bicol and Mindoro.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts losing strength after traversing Northern Samar...in the vicinity of Burias Island...about 93 km northwest of Masbate City, Masbate [2AM DEC 15: 12.9N 123.0E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it crosses Northern Mindoro...about 55 km west-northwest of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro [2AM DEC 16: 13.6N 120.4E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea in a slow west-southwest track...about 255 km northwest of Coron, Palawan [2AM DEC 17: 12.9N 119.1E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Dec 13, 2015
Location of Center: Near 12.4º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km NE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 273 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 282 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 304 km E of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 5: 371 km ESE of Metro Naga, CamSur
Distance 6: 629 km ESE of Metro Manila

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph