Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 014

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 014

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 014
Issued at: 2:30 AM PhT (18:30 GMT) Wednesday 16 December 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Mid-Morning, 16 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) emerges over the West Philippine Sea...now passing close to Lubang Island. Rainy and windy conditions to prevail across the Southern Tagalog Provinces today.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing scattered rains with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Tagalog Provinces incl. Palawan should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Cavite, Marinduque, Mindoro, Laguna, and Batangas - Today through Thursday Morning (Dec 17) .

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Metro Manila, Southern parts of Central Luzon, Southern Zambales, Southern Quezon, and Romblon - Today through Thursday Morning (Dec 17).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern parts of Central Luzon, Northern Palawan, Southern parts of Northern Luzon - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Western Mindoro, Batangas, and Cavite - Today until Wednesday morning (Dec 16).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Occidental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Batangas - Tonight until Wednesday (Dec 16)

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, December 15...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: In the vicinity of Lubang Island...(near 13.9N 120.3E)
About: 15 km northeast of Lubang Island...or 39 km southwest of Nasugbu, Batangas
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 205 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Southwest @ 13 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move slowly west to west-southwestward during the next 24 hours away from the northwestern coasts of Mindoro, turning sharply to the southwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall move faster across the southern part of West Philippine Sea today through Thursday (Dec 17).

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken while over the West Philippine Sea due to the arrival of the cool dry air of the northeast monsoon (amihan) and will further lose strength while moving over the Southern part of the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens slowly as it moves west to west-southwest across the West Philippine Sea...about 100 km west-southwwest of Lubang Island [8PM DEC 16: 13.6N 119.3E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
THURSDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it turns sharply to southwestward...about 279 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM DEC 17: 10.2N 116.2E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY EVENING: Continues to weaken as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 599 km west-southwest of Balabac, Palawan [8PM DEC 18: 7.4N 111.7E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue Dec 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.9º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 68 km WSW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 2: 76 km WNW of Batangas City
Distance 3: 79 km NW of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 4: 100 km S of Subic Bay, Zambales
Distance 5: 110 km SW of Metro Manila