Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 004

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 004

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 1:45 PM PhT (05:45 GMT) Sunday 13 December 2015
Next Update: Sunday Evening, 13 December 2015

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) has intensified into a Typhoon...endangering the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Northern Samar on Monday (Dec 14) between 11:00 AM to 1:00 PM...with a Strike Probability of 80-90 percent.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning Monday (Dec 14). Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Eastern and Northern Samar, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Eastern Camarines Sur (Partido District) - Beginning tonight through Monday Evening (Dec 14).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Samar and Bicol Provinces - Beginning tonight through Monday Evening (Dec 14).

WINDS

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Northern Samar and Catanduanes - Begining Monday Morning (Dec 14).

Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph):Rest of Samar, Albay, Sorsogon - Beginning Monday Morning (Dec 14).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 13...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea...(near 12.1N 129.6E)
About: 460 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 598 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 160 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Samar-Southern Bicol Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to bend to the west during the next 24 hours, and slightly turning back to the west-northwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall make landfall across the shores of Northern Samar by Monday (Dec 14) between 11:00 AM to 1:00 PM...passing very close to Masbate-Ticao Area Monday evening and emerging over the Sibuyan Sea by early Tuesday morning (Dec 15).

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to further intensify during the next 24 hours...and shall weaken consequently through the remainder of forecast period as it crosses the landmass of Northern Samar and Southern Bicol.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Continues to gain strength as it moves barely westward approaching the east coast of Northern Samar...about 131 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar [8AM DEC 14: 12.4N 125.9E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens after passing Northern Samar and Southern Bicol area...nearing the eastern shores of Oriental Mindoro...about 107 km southeast of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro [8AM DEC 15: 13.1N 121.8E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it continues to move west-northwestward but significantly decreases its forward speed...about 25 km south-southwest of Lubang Island [8AM DEC 16: 13.6N 120.1E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Dec 13, 2015
Location of Center: Near 12.1º N Lat 129.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 439 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 545 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 616 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 650 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 5: 713 km ESE of Metro Naga, CamSur

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph