Friday, August 17, 2012

Typhoon KAI-TAK [HELEN] - Update #014


for Friday, 17 August 2012 [9:30 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 13, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KAI-TAK (HELEN).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Fri 17 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Typhoon KAI-TAK (HELEN) moving quickly WNW closer to Leizhou Peninsula...will make landfall this morning...High winds and rains across Hainan and Coastal Guangdong.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Leizhou Peninsula and Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of KAI-TAK (HELEN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri August 17, 2012
Location of Eye: 20.5º N Lat 111.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 162 km (ESE) closer to Zhanjiang, China
Distance 2: 163 km (ENE) closer to Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 198 km (NE) closer to Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 255 km (ENE) closer to Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 5: 258 km (SW) away from Macau
Distance 6: 312 km (SW) away from Hong Kong
Distance 7: 626 km (ESE) closer to Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 8: 958 km (WNW) away from Laoag City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Leizhou Peninsula
CPA [ETA] to Leizhou Peninsula: Friday Morning [9-10AM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF
(for Philippines only)


KAI-TAK (HELEN) is expected to continue moving generally WNW throughout the forecast period, with some fluctuations in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of KAI-TAK will make landfall over the northern part of Leizhou Peninsula this morning...and will move across the Gulf of Tonkin, very near the shores of Western Guangdong on Friday afternoon. The cyclone will make its final landfall over the Vietnamese-Chinese Border around midnight of Saturday and traverse the rugged terrain of Northern Vietnam through Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Some slight intensification will still be expected prior in making landfall this morning...and KAI-TAK will start to lose strength later today...weakening into a Tropical Storm and dissipating into an area of Low Pressure on Sunday

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). KAI-TAK is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Just a Tropical Storm (TS)...makes landfall anew over the northernmost part of Northern Vietnam...about 138 km NE of Hanoi City [5AM AUG 18: 21.7N 106.9E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipates along the Chinese-Vietnamese Border...just an area of Low Pressure...about 328 km WNW of Hanoi City [5AM AUG 19: 22.4N 103.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (South China Sea) but will reach the northern part of Leizhou Peninsula. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...but will reach and affect the northern part of Leizhou Peninsila this morning.. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Southern & Western Guangdong particularly Leizhou Peninsula and Northern part of Hainan Island. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Rest of Guangdong and Southern part of Hainan Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of Kai-tak (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Leizhou Peninsula including Hainan Island. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China, Taiwan & Vietnam
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY KAI-TAK (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Kai-tak's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on Typhoon KAI-TAK (HELEN)...go visit our website @:


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