Wednesday, August 15, 2012

TS KAI-TAK [HELEN] - Update #007


for Wednesday, 15 August 2012 [2:08 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 13, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KAI-TAK (HELEN).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Wed 15 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (HELEN) intensifies slightly as it dips WSW...about to make landfall along the coast of Isabela, very near Palanan Bay. Heavy rainbands spreading across Northern & Central Luzon.

Meanwhile, KAI-TAK will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the Western Sections of Luzon incl. Metro Manila and Mindoro today until Thursday. Cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon, Southern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of KAI-TAK (HELEN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Wed August 15, 2012
Location of Center: 17.1º N Lat 122.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 32 km (E) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 107 km (E) closer to Ilagan City
Distance 3: 119 km (ENE) closer to Cauayan City
Distance 4: 125 km (NNE) closer to Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 129 km (ESE) closer to Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 168 km (SSE) closer to Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 7: 186 km (SE) closer to Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 247 km (ENE) closer to Baguio City
Distance 9: 261 km (ESE) closer to Vigan City
Distance 10: 263 km (SE) closer to Laoag City
Distance 11: 272 km (ENE) closer to San Fernando City
Distance 12: 332 km (NE) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Isabela-Cagayan Area
CPA [ETA] to Isabela-Cagayan: Wednesday [Now til 1PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF


KAI-TAK (HELEN) is expected to move WNW to NW-ward during the next 24 to 48 hours...before turning generally WNW-ward through 72 hours. Some fluctuation in its forward speed is likely throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of KAI-TAK will traverse Northern Luzon...passing across the provinces Isabela and Cagayan (passing in between the cities of Ilagan & Tuguegarao) this morning...Kalinga and Apayao around noontime...and Ilocos Norte in the afternoon. KAI-TAK will then emerge over the West Philippine Sea later tonight, after passing over or very close to Laoag City...and then move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning. By Friday noon, KAI-TAK is forecast to make landfall over Southern China very near Hong Kong.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 2 days...and KAI-TAK could become a Typhoon on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center. KAI-TAK is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MIDNIGHT: Near Typhoon strength as it starts to move away from Northern Luzon...about 167 km WNW of Laoag City [12AM AUG 16: 18.9N 119.2E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY MIDNIGHT: Becomes a Typhoon as it approaches Hong Kong Harbour...about 164 km ESE of Hong Kong, China [12AM AUG 17: 21.7N 115.7E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY MIDNIGHT: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after making landfall near Hong Kong...moving inland across Western Guangdong in Southern China...about 198 km NW of Macau [12AM AUG 18: 23.2N 112.0E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Philippine Sea)...approaching Cagayan & Isabela. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Cagayan, Isabela and Aurora. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Luzon including Bicol Region. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Kai-tak (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northeastern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with some scattered to occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, WESTERN LUZON & MINDORO incl. CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS & METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS KAI-TAK (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Kai-tak's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS KAI-TAK (HELEN)...go visit our website @:


:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:

<<< Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to

2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.

Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation

Copyright © 2012     All Rights Reserved

Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)
Recent Activity:


No comments: